>Political deadlock and the Czechs: nobody does it better…

>I see with interest that recent polls in the Czech Republic record a falling off of support for the centre-right in the Czech Republic, which ballooned to implausibly high levels in the wake of last year’s deadlocked elections: STEM (as reported in LN 17.5. 2007) now as the minority governing Civic Democrats (ODS) on 28.6%, and the opposition Social Democrats on 27.6%, the Christian Democrats on 6.6% – clearly, having a provincial politician suspected of taking backhanders with an illiberal record on Roma does you no harm politically,it seems, but not much good either, the Communists up on 12.6% and the Greens doing well on 9.2%. This works out at a projected 71 seats each for ODS and the Social Democrats, for the Christian Democrats 11, Greens 18, Communists 29. Depressing for the Civic Democrats that they have been caught up by their biggest rivals, but doing the maths, that would once again leave things even stevens with the current Civic/Christian Democrat/Green coalition having still exactly 100 of 200 seats.

Recent polling by Median (see LN 9 May) shows a broadly similar trend (ODS 34.5% (=77 seats), Soc Dem 32.3% (=73 seats), Communists 12.2%, (=24%)Christian Dems 9.9%, ( = 16 seats)Greens 7% (=10 seats) although with better news for the Christian Democrats, who seems to have a flaky (perhaps in all senses) floating vote in addition to their ultra-loyal rural Catholic core vote. Slighly better news for the current coalition as it comes out at 103 of 200 seats, a comfortable majority by Czech standards, but with a 2.5% margin of error, what it really means is that Czech politics is indeed deadlocked with plenty of scope for knife edge elections.

Political deadlock and the Czechs – nobody does it better…


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